Comparing future patterns of energy system change in 2 °C scenarios with historically observed rates of change     

《Global Environmental Change》2015

This paper systematically compares modeled rates of change provided by global integrated assessment models aiming for the 2 °C objective to historically observed rates of change. Such a comparison can provide insights into the difficulty of achieving such stringent climate stabilization scenarios. The analysis focuses specifically on the rates of change for technology expansion and diffusion, emissions and energy supply investments. The associated indicators vary in terms of system focus (technology-specific or energy system wide), temporal scale (timescale or lifetime), spatial scale (regional or global) and normalization (accounting for entire system growth or not). Although none of the indicators provide conclusive insights as to the achievability of scenarios, this study finds that indicators that look into absolute change remain within the range of historical growth frontiers for the next decade, but increase to unprecedented levels before mid-century. Indicators that take into account or normalize for overall system growth find future change to be broadly within historical ranges. This is particularly the case for monetary-based normalization metrics like GDP compared to energy-based normalization metrics like primary energy. By applying a diverse set of indicators alternative, complementary insights into how scenarios compare with historical observations are acquired but they do not provide further insights on the possibility of achieving rates of change that are beyond current day practice.  相似文献   

Energy use, climate change and folk psychology: Does sustainability have a chance? Results from a qualitative study in five European countries     

Anke Fischer  Vera PetersJan Vávra  Mirjam NeebeBoldizsár Megyesi 《Global Environmental Change》2011,21(3):1025-1034

Citizens’ support for policies that aim to curb carbon emissions and energy use is often seen as informed by their values, attitudes and perceptions of the environmental problem in question. We argue that we also need to understand how people conceptualise policies and the governance approaches underpinning them to be able to judge the likely acceptance of policy change.In this study, we draw on qualitative interviews (n = 202) from five European countries to explore citizens’ views on governance approaches to stimulate behavioural change in the field of resource use, including regulations, price changes, collective action, technological change and education.We found that many of our interviewees referred to generalised characteristics of humankind and contemporary society to back up their arguments for or against specific governance approaches. In particular, many interviewees concurred that people in general were so self-centred, driven by habit and money- and consumption-oriented that only strict regulations, drastic price changes and technological innovation could possibly achieve widespread behavioural change. As a consequence, such ‘folk psychologies’ can have substantial impact not only on public acceptance, but also on the success of policy measures that aim to reduce citizens’ resource use.  相似文献   

北京密云地区辐射与能量平衡特征分析   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

刘寿东  王秀丽  王咏薇  徐自为  杨澄  唐玉琪 《高原气象》2011,30(4):996-1004

利用北京密云站2007年1,4,8和10月辐射及湍流通量观测资料,分析了农林混合非均匀下垫面晴天、阴天条件下的辐射平衡、反照率及能量平衡特征。结果表明：（1）1,4,8和10月能量平衡闭合度（OLS方法）分别为82%,97%,72%和83%,总体闭合度为76%,数据质量较好;（2）晴天向上长波辐射1,4,8和10月平均...  相似文献   

海底电缆多次波压制方法研究   总被引：2，自引：1，他引：1       下载免费PDF全文

马继涛  Sen K. Mrinal  陈小宏  姚逢昌 《地球物理学报》2011,54(11):2960-2966

多次波一直是影响地震处理与解释的主要因素之一.本文基于表层相关多次波衰减(Surface Related Multiple Elimination,SRME)理论,对其进行一定的改造,使其可以预测出海底电缆(Ocean Bottom Cable,OBC)数据中所有与表层相关的多次波,而后将预测出的多次波自适应减去.本文...  相似文献   

Growth, condition and energy stores of Arctic grayling fry inhabiting natural and artificial constructed Arctic tundra streams     

Kimberlea L.F. DriedgerLynn P. Weber  Ian K. BirtwellDavid M. Janz 《Limnologica》2011,41(1):63-69

Juvenile north-temperate and Arctic fishes are faced with trade-offs between energy allocation to growth and energy storage (primarily lipids) prior to over-wintering. We determined classical morphometric (fork length, body weight and condition factor) and biochemical (whole body triglycerides, muscle RNA/DNA ratio, muscle proteins) measures of growth and condition in individual young-of-the-year (YOY) Arctic grayling (Thymallus arcticus). Grayling were collected just prior to over-wintering in late August (approximately 50 days after swim-up) from two natural streams and five locations within a 3.4 km long artificial stream constructed as a fish habitat compensation project and diversion channel for the diamond mining industry in Northwest Territories, Canada (64°45′N). Fork lengths, body weights and whole body triglyceride levels in grayling collected from all sites along the artificial stream were significantly lower than fish collected from one of the natural streams. Condition factor (weight-at-length) was not different among grayling collected from natural and artificial streams. Muscle proteins were lower in grayling collected from four sites along the artificial stream compared to the natural streams. In contrast, muscle RNA/DNA ratios were greater in grayling collected from two sites in the artificial stream compared to natural streams. There were no consistent differences in any variable among grayling collected at the five artificial stream sites or among grayling collected from the two natural streams. The higher RNA/DNA ratios and lower fork lengths, whole body triglycerides and muscle proteins in grayling inhabiting the artificial stream are consistent with energy still being primarily allocated to growth in these fish at this late stage of summer. Individuals that are both larger and possess greater energy storage in the form of triglycerides are more likely to survive the long over-wintering period at this latitude. Our results suggest that YOY grayling using the artificial stream as nursery habitat will likely face increased over-winter mortality, thus raising concerns over the use of fish presence, spawning and rearing as criteria for the initial success of artificial streams as habitat compensation measures in Arctic tundra regions. Further research is needed to determine the potential consequences of reduced size and energy storage in juvenile fishes in order to assess the viability of stream fish habitat compensation and restoration projects associated with industrial development in Arctic tundra regions.  相似文献   

川滇及其邻区中强地震烈度衰减关系适用性研究   总被引：6，自引：0，他引：6  

孙继浩  帅向华 《地震工程与工程振动》2011,31(1):11-18

本文选取川滇及邻区作为研究区域,根据地震构造环境和震害分布特点,将该地区分为西南地区和盆地地区,选取该地区6级以上的典型历史震例,将其数字化得到等震线数据,通过对这些数据的统计回归分析,分别建立两个区域的地震烈度沿长轴与短轴的衰减关系、各烈度面积与地震震级的关系、破裂长度与震级的关系.同时,综合利用上述关系建立不同的地...  相似文献   

陕西地区地震动衰减关系研究     

范文  杜文和  王晓军  邵辉成  文毅 《地震工程与工程振动》2011,31(2):47-54

通过分析陕西省丰富的地震活动资料,包括鲜明的地震活动与震害分布的地域性特点以及地震地质环境特点,将陕西省分为三个分区,来进行地震动衰减关系的研究.研究内容主要包括地震烈度衰减关系和基岩地震动衰减关系.选择美国西部作为参考区,三个分区分别作为研究区,采用可逆法进行映射转换计算,得到了三个分区的基岩地震动衰减关系,在转换过...  相似文献   

汶川地震中建筑震害衰减特征及抗震性能分析     

彭小波  李小军  刘启方  刘必灯 《地震工程与工程振动》2011,31(3):27-32

通过对汶川地震中170个调查点的震害指数进行统计分析,得到了从Ⅵ度到Ⅺ度中各个烈度区内的平均震害指数值和方差,结果表明在Ⅶ到X度区平均震害指数与烈度表基本相符,分析了Ⅵ度区和Ⅺ区内平均震害指数偏高和偏低的原因,指出前者主要因为调查点分布的原因,而后者则可能还受到该烈度区大小划分的影响.在断层距50 km内震害指数高、离...  相似文献   

江苏地区介质非弹性衰减和场地响应研究   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

詹小艳  许红梅  王俊  霍祝青  江昊琳  缪发军  徐戈 《地震地磁观测与研究》2011,32(6):22-27

选取江苏数字地震台网在2001年1月-2010年7月记录到43次高质量数字地震波形,采用Atkinson(1992)和Moya(2000)的方法,反演得到江苏地区的介质非弹性衰减特性和场地响应.  相似文献   

利用数字地震波资料研究宁夏地区介质非弹性衰减和场地响应     

许英才  许文俊  李鸿庭  陈继锋 《大地测量与地球动力学》2011,31(Z1):33-37

利用宁夏及邻区的数字地震波资料,选取2009-05-2010-10月M_L2.6以上的20个台站32次地震事件的268条波形记录,用遗传算法反演了宁夏及邻区介质非弹性衰减系数和台站场地相应.反演得到:宁夏地区介质非弹性衰减Q值与频率的关系为Q(f)=337.67f0.4554.其Q值和山西及浙江地区的结果最相近,可能预...  相似文献